Demographic Trends Among Major Ethnic Groups in Sri Lanka

A.T.P.L. Abeykoon

The multi-ethnic society of Sri Lanka comprises four major ethnic groups namely, the Sinhalese, Sri Lanka tamils, Sri Lanka Moors and Indian Tamils.The Sinhalese are the largest ethnic group comprising about three fourths of the population. While the proportionate share of the Sinhalese has increased over time, the proportionate share and the absolute number of Indian Tamils has gradually declined. The decline in the Indian Tamil population initially was due to the repatriation of Indian Tamils to India due to an agreement reached between Sri Lanka and India. The subsequent decline has been the result of Indian Tamils who have gained citizenship reporting themselves as Sri Lanka Tamils at censuses.The Sri Lanka Moors have shown a gradual increase in the percentage share due to its relatively high fertility and the drop in the proportion of Indian Tamils in the total population. All other minor ethnic groups such as Burghers, Maylays, Paravaras, Colombo Chetties etc. comprise less than one per cent of the population.

The demographic changes of major ethnic groups show that there has been a continuous decline in the rate of growth of population as well as declines in mortality and fertility over the past three decades. the differentials in mortality have narrowed over time. With greater attention given to the improvements of health of the population in the plantation sector, the mortality levels of Indian Tamils are likely to decline to the levels of other ethnic groups.

The fertility differentials have shown a clear decline among all ethnic groups. It is also evident that the differences in fertility levels have narrowed over time. A clear inverse relationship between fertility and mother's education is observed among all ethnic groups. Given this relationship, it is very likely that all ethnic groups would reach replacement level fertility at least by the end of the first quarter of this century. Migration would continue to decline and will become a negligible factor in population growth by 2025. Projections of population by ethnic groups show that when Sri Lanka's population stabilizes around 23 million by the middle of this century, the Sinhalese would comprise about 16 million, Sri Lanka Tamils 3 million, Moors 2.5 million, and Indian Tamils 1.5 million. By then, the proportionate share of the Sinhalese to the total population would be around 71 percent and Moors will comprise 10 per cent of the total population. The slower ageing of about 30 percent of the population would be economically beneficial as the country advances in to the first few decades of this century.